Dear Colleagues,
I am pleased to share a new preprint examining how health-zone-specific transmission may shape the potential impact of ring vaccination during the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The analysis found that health zones with the same operational-priority score may require different levels of effective ring reach to achieve the same simulated reduction in cases. This highlights an important distinction:
Operational priority is not the same as vaccination opportunity.
Although no vaccine is currently recommended for programmatic use against Bundibugyo virus disease, preparedness remains essential. A future vaccination response would depend not only on vaccine availability, but also on rapid case detection, timely identification of contacts and contacts of contacts, community acceptance, access to affected communities, and prompt vaccine delivery.
The estimated thresholds are intended to support comparative preparedness planning. They should not be interpreted as forecasts, vaccine-allocation rules or recommended coverage targets.
Preprint:
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202607.2262
Comments and technical feedback are very welcome.
Tambe Elvis Akem
@Immunization for Resilience Newsletter Reseacrh (IRNR) Group.