Modeling long-term vaccination strategies with MenAfriVac in the African meningitis belt

Following MenAfriVac introduction at high uptake, the model predicts excellent short-term disease control. With no subsequent immunization, strong resurgences in disease incidence were predicted after approximately 15 years (assuming 10 years’ average vaccine protection). Routine immunization at 9 months of age resulted in lower average annual incidence than regular mass campaigns of 1- to 4-year-olds, provided coverage was above approximately 60%. The strategy with the lowest overall average annual incidence and longest time to resurgence was achieved using a combination strategy of introduction into the Expanded Programme on Immunization at 9 months, 5 years after the initial mass campaigns, with a catch-up targeting unvaccinated 1- to 4-year-olds.