Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance

The findings suggest that the goal of reducing measles mortality by 90% from 2000 to 2010 has not yet been met. This conclusion was sustained under all alternative scenarios we assessed. Estimated global measles mortality declined substantially from 2000 to 2007, associated with increases in routine MCV1 coverage as well as the delivery of more than a billion doses of measles vaccine through SIAs. However, from 2008 to 2010, estimated global measles mortality did not diminish further and large outbreaks in southern Africa in 2009 and 2010 resulted in a small increase in estimated mortality for the WHO African region. Although SIAs substantially affected measles mortality, the highly infectious nature of measles virus requires maintenance of very high levels of population immunity through high routine coverage and timely implementation of SIAs to address immunity gaps.