POST 01195E : VACCINE STOCK MANAGEMENT
Follow-up on Posts 01114E, 01127E, 01138E, 01164E, 01178E, 01186E and 01191E
4 December 2007
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This posting contains two contributions on two different aspects of vaccine stock management.
James Cheyne from PATH shares ideas on vaccine needs calculation, and Ãœmit Kartoglu from WHO replies to questions asked by Mogens Munck.
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Hello,
I wonder a bit about the method of calculating stock needed: Population X target X survival rate X coverage X dropout rate X wastage rate + reserve - existing stock.
The first six measures all subject to significant estimation errors. This method is most useful if the product being supplied has never been supplied before and there is no history of previous consumption. But this is an event that only occurs once.
Might it not be simpler to routinely estimate stock needed as follows: Consumption in last supply period + reserve - existing stock?
The consumption during the supply period is the ACTUAL figure for
with less margin for error. Also, even if an error is made this method will correct the error at the next supply event.
Note: the reserve stock needs to exceed the possible increase in demand in a single supply period. The usual 25% is normally more than adequate for this and in light of experience it could even be reduced to keep the cold chain lean.
Just a thought. To keep it simple.
James
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Thanks Mogens for these questions.
1. Special discussions with the financial authorities were not conducted in any of the countries where field trials took place. From our experience, management of stocks and recording of financial implications are very difficult to be merged in such systems. Countries require different information in different formats. We may control the format of the management of stocks but usually not the financial data since it is not originated by the EPI programme itself. In addition, with all these different requirements, it is not easy to incorporate such information in a generic form.
2. I am sorry I did not understand this question. What "posting" are you referring to in regards to audit trail?
3. It will not, however lower versions will always be usable with new formats.
4. As indicated in the publication, the document mainly deals with MANUAL stock management for intermediate stores. We do not believe this could be a definitive answer for a primary vaccine store in the country. In such settings, other solutions than Excel might be the case. The main reason we picked Excel was that it is more available to all, known by all and easy to use. Also, in the main data sheet, countries may decide to use local script that may not be the case with many of the other programmes.
Hope this helps.
Cheers, UMIT
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