Clustered lot quality assurance sampling to assess immunisation coverage: increasing rapidity and maintaining precision

Publication Abstract: Vaccination programmes targeting disease elimination aim to achieve very high coverage levels (e.g. 95%). We calculated the precision of different clustered lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) designs in computer-simulated surveys to provide local health officers in the field with preset LQAS plans to simply and rapidly assess programmes with high coverage targets. We calculated sample size (N), decision value (d) and misclassification errors (alpha and

beta) of several LQAS plans by running 10 000 simulations. We kept the upper coverage threshold (UT) at 90% or 95% and decreased the lower threshold (LT) progressively by 5%. We measured the proportion

of simulations with £d individuals unvaccinated or lower if the coverage was set at the UT (pUT) to calculate beta (1-pUT) and the proportion of simulations with >d unvaccinated individuals if the coverage was LT% (pLT) to calculate alpha (1-pLT). We divided N in clusters (between 5 and 10) and recalculated the errors hypothesising that the coverage would vary in the clusters according to a binomial distribution with preset standard deviations of 0.05 and 0.1 from the mean lot coverage. We

selected the plans fulfilling these criteria: alpha £ 5% beta £ 20% in the unclustered design; alpha £ 10% beta £ 25% when the lots were divided in five clusters. When the interval between UT and LT was larger than 10% (e.g. 15%), we were able to select precise LQAS plans dividing the lot in five clusters with N = 50 (5 · 10) and d = 4 to evaluate programmes

with 95% coverage target and d = 7 to evaluate programmes with 90% target. These plans will considerably increase the feasibility and the rapidity of conducting the LQAS in the field.