Thank you for this challenging question on estimating supply chain requirements for new vaccines!
As far as I know there is no comprehensive tool to estimate, as you say: “ … [the] economic guidance to select the most adequate options based on each site and technology characteristics.”
There are however a number of tools that can provide some of the information that would be needed to make a cost estimate. The best overall descriptions can be found on
http://www.who.int/immunization_delivery/systems_policy/logistics/en/index2.html (
http://www.who.int/immunization_delivery/systems_policy/logistics/en/index2.html) where there is a table of contents as follows: Logistics support to immunization services (
http://www.who.int/immunization_delivery/systems_policy/logistics/en/index.html) Vaccine management (
http://www.who.int/immunization_delivery/systems_policy/logistics/en/index1.html) Vaccine forecast and needs estimation Vaccine stock management (
http://www.who.int/immunization_delivery/systems_policy/logistics/en/index3.html) Vaccine volume calculator (
http://www.who.int/immunization_delivery/systems_policy/logistics/en/index4.html) Cold chain and logisitics tools (
http://www.who.int/immunization_delivery/systems_policy/logistics/en/index5.html)
All but one of these headings are hyperlinks to pages that give more details on each tool. There at least four more tools that might be useful: A recently completed Effective Vaccine Management assessment tool (EVM). This tool aims to combine the best of the former EVSM and VMA tools and eliminates the redundancies and incompatibilities between the two tools. The EVM is an assessment tool but it also provides the framework for management, monitoring, supervision, and improvement of the immunization supply chain system. More details can be found on
http://technet21.org/forumV3/viewtopic.php?t=1446 (
http://technet21.org/forumV3/viewtopic.php?t=1446). WHO-PATH Optimize is working on an excel-based costing approach that aims to estimate costs at each level. Although it currently aims to estimate cost per dose, the tool could be converted to provide a cost per cm3. Data collection for this tool is however quite intensive. There are also several other modelling initiatives that are under development. These are described in the Optimize Newsletter from June 2010:
http://www.who.int/immunization_delivery/systems_policy/Optimize-newsletter-June-2010.pdf (
http://www.who.int/immunization_delivery/systems_policy/Optimize-newsletter-June-2010.pdf). A Cold Chain Equipment Manager (CCEM) is under development that estimates costs, both recurrent and capital, of “asset selection” for refrigerators. CCEM will help facility-based “asset selection” by automating selection of equipment options based on user standardization preferences, among other characteristics. CCEM also models the impact of increased resupply intervals on refrigerator equipment needs (and costs.)
CCEM does not comprehensively model transport costs. It calculates total equipment costs and generates these as a unit per cm3. CCEM does not however provide a “detailed picture of the supply chain network economics by piecing together the situation of each node in the network.”
Even though we have not fully responded to your question, we hope this information will useful.
James Cheyne, with a lot of help from WHO (Geneva), UNICEF (New York) and PATH (Seattle).