POST 00649E : VACCINE FORECAST

POST 00649E : VACCINE FORECAST 12 March 2004 _______________________________________ Alasdair Wylie (mailto:[log in to unmask]) comments on new policies regarding the vaccine forecast formula as indicated in the last GAVI Update (Feb. 2004). _______________________________________ The following extract from the new GAVI Update caught my attention: "From Dr Olivier Ronveaux, WHO/HQ: New Policies : The GAVI Board has recently approved a revision to the vaccine forecast formula, based on DTP1, and not on DTP3 anymore; for the next exercise, the forecast will be calculated as followed: DTP1 = DTP3 x factor of DTP1-DTP3 drop-out (most recent report by country)." This is confusing and seems unhelpful, unless some other information is needed to make it clearer. Published GAVI guidelines for vaccine requirement calculations - for example in the form for application for country support - have always rightly used the basic WHO method of expected number of infants (target population) and number of doses as the starting point for this calculation for each antigen. If, as is indicated above, some countries have been given new vaccine funding with DPT3 as a calculation base (albeit difficult to believe) one would expect them to have run out of vaccine, unless dropout was so low that the reserve stock covered the deficiency. How many did? If a recent DTP1 figure is needed as a base for calculation it is available directly from the WHO/UNICEF Joint Reporting Form and there would seem to be no need to use a drop out factor to adjust a DPT3 figure. However the disadvantage of using a DPT1 figure is that it would tend to institutionalise "left outs" - the infants born who do not start the immunization series. Vaccine supply calculated on this basis would therefore tend to discourage efforts to identify and immunize "left outs". Is it not better therefore to use the standard formula? Clarification from WHO/HQ would be useful, as might a discussion at the Technet meeting. Regards Alasdair Wylie ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Visit the TECHNET21 Website at http://www.technet21.org You will find instructions to subscribe, a direct access to archives, links to reference documents and other features. ______________________________________________________________________________ To UNSUBSCRIBE, send a message to : mailto:[log in to unmask] Leave the subject area BLANK In the message body, write unsubscribe TECHNET21E ______________________________________________________________________________ The World Health Organization and UNICEF support TechNet21. The TechNet21 e-Forum is a communication/information tool for generation of ideas on how to improve immunization services. It is moderated by Claude Letarte and is hosted in cooperation with the Centre de coopération internationale en santé et développement, Québec, Canada (http://www.ccisd.org) ______________________________________________________________________________