POST 00671E : VACCINE FORECAST

POST 00671E : VACCINE FORECAST Follow-up on Posts 00649E and 00662E 8 May 2004 ________________________________ This posting contains two contributions. The first comes from Julie Milstien (mailto:[email protected]) or (mailto:[email protected]) and the second from Elly Tumwine Rweizire (mailto:[email protected]) from Uganda. ________________________________ Alejo is correct - the demand forecasting equations do not work very well at the individual health center level because of the need to factor in session size/outreach. However, building up a composite forecast for a country based on a session size (or teamwise) analysis of each health center is not a feasible solution. Therefore we are left with the equations. As Olivier and Patrick say, once a country has experience with a product, it is fairly straightforward to build a demand forecast, based on usage of the previous years and factoring in things that might change (target population, expected coverage, wastage, presentation). It is only when you are starting from scratch that it gets complex, particularly so if the introduction of a product will be rolled-out, or if a country is trying to increase coverage and decrease wastage at the same time. Thus the advice to be conservative in the first year so as to avoid stockouts. Julie Dr Julie Milstien University of Maryland School of Medicine, Center for Vaccine Development ____________________________ Some help me out of this confusion. Vaccine forecasting for antigens with more than one dose in schedule, it is clear with the attached WHO guidelines. · The target population as explained in the WHO rationale should be birth cohort since immunizations start as early as at birth for OPV and 6 weeks for DPT. · The first dose coverage should be used as explained in the WHO rationale to avoid the complications of figuring out DPT1-DPT2, DPT2-DPT3 drops out. The complication however remains for countries with low routine coverage that vaccinate children who did not complete their schedule and come when they are 12 months - 24 months. Some country policies allow for immunizing such kids. Should this be taken care of in the wastage factor or should such countries document numbers and calculate for this proportion based on previous records. Theoretically everybody should complete the schedule by 11months. Forecasting using sessions has its shortfalls. · Session size varies by immunization unit catchment area population (health centre and hospitals) and seasonality within individual units. · Session frequency varies by immunisation units depending on the consistency of logistic support (supply of vaccines and injection materials, transport, allowance for staff). Where outreach strategy is employed, a number of countries prefer to make integrated outreaches and may also be affected by the logistics of other components other than immunisation. If birth cohort is used as a denominator for estimating coverage for DPT1 for vaccine forecasting, should it also be applied to estimating coverage for measles, which is given at nine months? Should this be the same denominator for calculating coverage at the end of the year? Elly Tumwine Rweizire, Country logistician UNEPI (EPI Uganda) ______________________________________________________________________________ Visit the TECHNET21 Website at http://www.technet21.org You will find instructions to subscribe, a direct access to archives, links to reference documents and other features. ______________________________________________________________________________ To UNSUBSCRIBE, send a message to : mailto:[email protected] Leave the subject area BLANK In the message body, write unsubscribe TECHNET21E ______________________________________________________________________________ The World Health Organization and UNICEF support TechNet21. The TechNet21 e-Forum is a communication/information tool for generation of ideas on how to improve immunization services. It is moderated by Claude Letarte and is hosted in cooperation with the Centre de coopération internationale en santé et développement, Québec, Canada (http://www.ccisd.org) ______________________________________________________________________________